Phil Flynn Trading Anything That Moves

forexbrokerrebateprogram 2023/2/25 20:59:29 6Views

" forexbrokerrebateprogramve probably seen every possible m autorebateforextake a client cashback forex make; what makes them lose forex broker rebate program what makes them succeed" Phil Flynn is a vice president at Aralon Trad forexrebatebestg who "trades anything that moves. He has been in the trading business since 1979 and for a period of time dealt with top clients of Linder Waldock on how to improve their trading skills, and I think Phil would be well suited to provide commentary on this. Their father is the legendary Joe Greenberg, whom I also interviewed for the sequel to this book, quoting from the companys brochure: "Greenbergs goal is to make Alarone Trading the best integrated broker in futures and options, offering a full range of services "I visited Phil at the Alarone offices, which are located in a fairly quiet location within walking distance of downtown Chicago and the major exchanges. I expected the office to be quiet and understaffed, but in fact, it was a fairly large space, everyone seemed busy, the phones were ringing, there were charts and chart data on the walls. In the few hours I was there, I felt that this small firm had something that other large trading or brokerage firms lacked: phone conversations between staff and clients that revealed a congenial atmosphere. As Phil Flynn explains, not having a plan is a common and fundamental mistake "Most raw traders read the newspapers I often hear clients say: Gold cant go any lower, the papers say its at a three-year low They think its easy to make money trading but, look at the price of gold now (at the time of this interview, gold was at a three-year low) So, they dont have a trading plan at all, they just read the paper and get a vague sense of what theyre going to do, and then they think, Soybeans are good, because the Wall Street Journal is reporting it, and I want to buy some soybeans. Lets not just buy soybeans, lets look at it from a rational point of view" Please note that for most people, not having an adequate trading plan is absolutely no accident When losses occur, the lack of a plan can provide countless scapegoats If there is no plan, you can blame the failure on Any reason trading losses occur solely because of the dog - even if you dont have a dog without a plan, there is no accountability, you dont have to account for yourself This may work well on a psychological level, but can be terrible on a financial level The benefits of planning are like life, the worries of trading basically come from the uncertainty of the future Since we dont know the future Because we dont know how the future will develop, we feel worried. Everyone expects certainty, and planning cant predict the future, but it can pre-draft countermeasures for every possible scenario. An ideal plan should release the psychological pressure of having to obsess over uncertainty, so that trading becomes more natural, so that you feel relaxed and can even enjoy trading. You can gain some control and stop going with the flow. A plan can help you resist the temptation to get comfortable, because the behavior that feels most comfortable in the trading process is often the wrong behavior. So, a plan is also a means, a trading discipline that allows you to improve your trading behavior and prevents you from being consumed by the madness of emotions Phil Flynn stresses the importance of a trading plan. So its better to have some plan than no plan at all. You have to have the right mindset: win or lose, its a good trade because even if I get stopped out, even if I make a bad call, its still a good trade. I try to take a long-term view of performance that doesnt happen in one or two days Even if you might get stopped out at a low, you dont have to be afraid that if its a low, youll have plenty of opportunities to get back in if you take a longer-term view. Whether the entry/exit signal is based on fundamental analysis, technical analysis, or other indicators is a matter of personal preference "clarity" is the key If the signal is not clear enough, it becomes ambiguous and loses its meaning Second, the trading plan must be tested and shown to have consistent profitability The trading plan must also consider risk and money management, which are discussed elsewhere in this book As Phil Flynn explains, the ideal trading plan doesnt have to be complicated or esoteric "I prefer to follow the trend, which means you have to be able to judge the trend The easiest way to do that is to look for a long-term trend line and buy near it But if the price crosses the trend line, you also have to be able to sell or short it So, if Im thinking about entry points for a trading plan I will judge the trend line and look for buying opportunities near the trend line If the price crosses the trend line, I will exit or reverse the position" "Regarding forecasting, I use a simple measurement based on the past performance of the market If I hold a long contract position, once the price hits the price level in the measurement, I will end part of the contract and adjust the remaining The current soybean market is a typical example of a fairly strong upward trend; however, although the market is bullish, the possibility of prices continuing to move higher is still quite limited" "Of course, the market fluctuations are sometimes quite violent and may produce repeated signals. This is all very simple and fundamental, but it also allows the average trader to learn from it and provides a basis for technical strategy design. In other words, entering on the planned entry signal and exiting on the planned exit signal. As Flynn explains, one of the ways to achieve the self-discipline needed for trading is to remove the emotional component and keep a written trading plan that is not scattered in your head. This makes the plan clearer and makes it easier to take the necessary action. After all, self-discipline is about doing what we should do when we dont want to do it. Once you find a plan that works, dont interfere with it. Trading success can easily trigger greed and arrogance - the two emotions that inevitably precede disaster. "Traders and the market often find roundabout ways (e.g., changing winning trading plans) to return the bounty to its rightful owner. It is important to be aware of the subconscious thought that "the money is too easy". "Once they find success, some traders try to change what made them successful in the first place, and that can be one of the biggest problems I know a trader who is a day-trader. I kept telling him, For any five-day trade, you can make a lot of money if you set the right stop-loss. This can be a recipe for disaster. They get lost in their own success and think they dont need any discipline. They feel too great to continue with their original successful methods. The hardest part of trading is getting over your ego. A little success makes you think, Ive got it all figured out, and you think, I got stopped out three times because the stops were too tight: from now on, Im going to use wider stops or no stops at all. Initially, they trade on thin ice like easily frightened bunnies, and that makes them successful; then theyre not afraid anymore" "How to control your own success, thats one of the biggest challenges We see countless cases in sports where people change their personalities "Flynn gives us an important warning: As a trader, you must understand that the power of success can corrupt you and shape you into a loser. For those who steal success from the market, the "mother of all losses" will relentlessly chase you. If you make a little money and then get the urge to change your plan, you have to be careful" If the current trading plan is pretty good, youd better think carefully about any change and rethink it I think incorporating more mechanics is probably the best way to avoid this situation If youre going to change a method that works, youd better make sure its not because of It is important to make sure that this is for the purpose of improving the trading system and not to take on more risk, and to have a written plan before making any changes so that you have a chance to go back to the original plan. Only when you find that the trading system is actually creating problems can you consider solutions and look for solutions" If you find that the same problems keep occurring in the system, this is a great discovery and you can formulate improvements to address the problem. I dont use stop-loss anymore because whenever I buy, I always get stopped out. Even these kinds of minor changes can adjust your trading psychology and give you some additional experience. The best way is to leave the past behind and start over. I try to see each day as a new day and try not to be too extreme and try to keep a balance. Come on, one minute at a time - honestly, this is an important key to success, but its hard to analyze why youre wrong: Thats why I should do this Even if you were nothing yesterday, you could be a hero tomorrow Try to stay balanced "You must have the determination to solve the problem before you can pry open the deepest dungeons of your mind and get the precious answers. Then, relax, you know the job is almost done. As Flynn emphasizes, will is a powerful tool that traders have. You take it one day at a time, you stay within your capabilities, you dont get overconfident, and every morning I tell myself, Its going to be a good day, to boost my morale. This is one of the most common mistakes. The other most common mistake is revenge trading where they feel angry and keep adding to the market. You entered the market short and then got stopped out at the highest price of the day You were right, the high price of the day was just an abrupt move Now, the market is down 200 points; so, you are furious You tell yourself: If the stop loss is adjusted up one notch, if there is no stop loss set ...... Therefore, you generate a mentality: I want to tell the market where the next head I want to put short, I want to get my money back So, you enter the short, the part size doubled the result, of course, you were stopped out again Its human nature to get out, nobody likes to lose money" "You can convince yourself that youre only going to make one trade in a market in a day... thats another kind of self-discipline, not to trade based on revenge, to build a trade and then walk away. So, until the end of the day, he doesnt know if hes won or lost. Of course, this represents only one solution, so leave the market for a while and you can be a successful trader. "Many traders think they have to sit in front of the quotes screen all day or they are not real players. This may be true for professional Forex traders, but it is not necessary for us in general. It wont hurt your trading position any more, and a rich king is always better than a poor trader A resilient mindset is a profitable mindset Some traders are overwhelmed when faced with losses, expecting things to improve on their own and stubbornly ignoring exit signals As a trader, if you ignore what the market is telling you, your world will turn black and your finances will turn red Stubborn --Whether it stems from expectation or fear - the result is a loss. Ignoring information and staying put is probably the easiest way to deal with a loss. "Of course, you can expect as much as you like, but the expectation itself can never move the market, and the loss area will not automatically get better Faith can move mountains, but expectation can not move the market Your will can control you, but not the market "When you build a part, you will naturally create a specific psychology: move a part, move a part, move a part. When you build a part, a specific psychology naturally arises: for example, if you buy gold and the price starts to fall, you think: I dont think the price of gold is too high This is a logical fallacy of reasonable price I guess, the ego component of this psychology outweighs all the most difficult things It could be stop-loss exits and reversal parts" "You say, Hey! Gold is low enough, look at this trend line, look at these fundamentals, the gold mines in South Africa keep closing, theres a war going on here, Ive got to be long gold can be, and when the market disagrees with your fundamental analysis, you say, Even though the price is down below the trend line, I still think gold is definitely going up Im not going to change direction, Im going to As a result, your part usually develops into a big, big loss." "When you build a part that you think is bound to be right and then ignore everything the market tells you and stick with the long side, the worst possible outcome for this type of trader is that the part really does end up backfiring You have to understand the trap of not being obsessed with the possibility of being wrong forever if you find yourself in a constant problem of losing, and then as soon as you open a position, you have a mindset of "you can be wrong unless proven right", rather than "you can be wrong unless proven right". In other words, you are a soldier in the pursuit of wealth and do not need to remain loyal to any part of the risk management. A famous New Yorker once said, "Watch out for potential risk, and the potential for profit will take care of itself. They dont know where to admit their mistakes, and as a result, they often hold their positions longer than they want. When they buy something, they have some idea of the upside target, but no idea of the downside risk. Also, some traders often overcapitalize if they have $5,000 in their account, they buy five bites of pork belly futures just because they have enough margin in their account, and they think they should use it fully" "You have to ask: Do I Both approaches can be successful. Ive seen some traders build down in tranches and its been quite successful in terms of risk control. Of course, there is a downside to this approach, as you can incur serious losses and get struck out quickly in terms of the risk/profit potential your money should take, you can always set a percentage limit and tell yourself: Im only willing to pay 10% margin from the net worth of my account. "In principle, if youre prepared to be conservative, its better to have a margin credit of no more than 20% or even 10% of your net worth to get you through some bad times," according to Flynn, "Just because you have enough money in your account doesnt mean you should use it all. The point is: stay in the game and deal with losses with a winning mindset. Like many of the traders interviewed in this book, Phil Flynns attitude toward losses is rare among non-professional traders because of the difference in mindset. "If I want to be successful, I have to learn to get out of the market with a small loss, because I cant stay in the game and tell myself, This trade went well, I only lost $2,500, if thats the case, youre in control. A trader once said, Learn to love small losses. If you can love small losses, youre not far from making huge profits. Sometimes, the best trades are not the ones that put money in your wallet, but the ones that end up in the right place at the right time. To avoid major losses, it is better to accept them now. Profits come not only from how much you make, but also from how much less you lose. The key to winning is in your approach, not in winning or losing. If you are able to make your losses in time, it means you are doing it right. There are low-risk trading opportunities in the market, but you need to be patient and wait to jump on a bus indiscriminately just because its the earliest one to get in, which definitely wont get you there any sooner: in fact, the opposite is true. are low-risk tradesIf a week or a full day of trading doesnt go well, its hard to stay patientI mean, wait patiently for the right time to enter the market often offers some very low-risk opportunities, and if youre patient, those opportunities will present themselves" "Its hard to stay patient because you want to make money every day, you want to get in every day You worry about catching the bus as a trader, I constantly remind myself that there is always the next bus If you miss this bus, just be patient and wait, there is the next bus If you dont think the bus will come in again, its a big mistake" Phil Flynn believes that patience is a fundamental element of risk management Without patience, you are likely to catch some undue opportunities and raise Lack of patience stems from fear or greed if youre looking for entry opportunities and youre afraid of missing them Just focus on your system and wait for its signals, patience wont be a problem If you trust your system and only accept the trades it picks for you, you dont need to worry about missing opportunities "The fear of missing opportunities makes you think that. Soybean prices will continue to move higher, I have to buy because the weekend is here and theres not much chance of rain, then Ill miss my chance again. Then, watching the price go up, you start to get angry and anxious, and as a result, you buy in after the price. In addition to learning to love the small losses, you must also learn to love the profits you missed, even though they could have been more. If you are holding 10 contracts and have reached your target price, you can close half of them and then tighten your stop loss on the rest to protect your profits, so let the remaining half continue to grow. Tactics - Develop a trading plan so you can stay calm, confident and in control - The trading plan must clearly tell you when to enter and exit the market and when not to act - If the trading plan is not working well, identify the problems and fix them - Be aware of retaliatory trades - Avoid obsessing about a certain view or a certain area - Risk management: Define potential risks - Risk management: Keep some cushion in your account to prevent successive trades Keeping some cushion in your account to prevent continuous bad trades - Not following the systems instructions is the only opportunity you can miss - Waiting patiently for low risk/high reward trading opportunities - Running out of money to trade tomorrow because you are chasing the market today is the only opportunity you can miss
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