Forex fundamental analysis
forex trend prediction of one of the two schools of fundamental analys forex broker rebate program autorebateforex foreign exchange trading, everyone wants to accurately predict the exchange rate, so that you can ensure their own profit This is the basis of good foreign exchange trading foreign exchange analysis methods into fundamental analysis forexrebatebest technical analysis historically, we have been arguing about which analysis method we put these two analysis methods briefly Tell you, and point out the advantages and disadvantages of each method, we hope to help you we think, has mastered the technical analysis, such as then can master the fundamental analysis, the operation of the foreign exchange market will be beneficial because the fundamental analysis is focused on the point is to judge the long-term trend of a certain forexbrokerrebateprogram, is to do qualitative analysis; the opposite of the technical analysis is focused on the judgment of the price to buy and sell, is to do quantitative analysis We will first talk about the fundamental analysis technical analysis will be elaborated in this set of books in books 2 and 3 in the ups and downs of the exchange rate, the exchange rate changes are difficult to grasp, but all changes do not deviate from the important factors affecting the exchange rate are as follows: First of all, the growth rate of the economies of various countries, which is the most basic factor affecting the currency market a cashback forex economic growth rate if it rises, the currency of the country will form a favorable, the countrys The currency will appreciate, in the currency market, the dollar dominates the U.S. economic growth rate, which affects the currency market must be concerned about the U.S. economic data released this month, the U.S. economic data is generally bad, will cause the dollar to plummet early Thursday, November 6, 2002, because of rising unemployment, shrinking manufacturing and consumer confidence, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points, so that interest rates fell to Before that most economists predicted that the Fed would cut interest rates by 25 basis points, the Fed lowered interest rates by 50 basis points, surprising the market, after which the dollar fell below short-term support against major currencies. On the contrary, a countrys foreign trade out in the international balance of payments, a countrys income is greater than its expenditure, then that countrys income is now less than expenditure, then this is the trade deficit, also called deficit a countrys trade surplus, indicating that the fundamentals of the countrys economy is good, the market demand for the countrys currency increased, it will make the countrys currency appreciation, if a countrys trade deficit, the market demand for the countrys currency increased, it will make the countrys currency appreciation, if a countrys trade deficit, the market demand for the countrys currency increased, it will make the countrys currency appreciation. If a country has a trade deficit, the market demand for the countrys currency will decrease, which will devalue the countrys currency Money supply: The money supply refers to the amount of money issued by a countrys central bank or currency-issuing bank, which has a great impact on the exchange rate, and a country must ensure that it maintains a certain amount of money supply. If too much paper money is issued, there will be an indiscriminate issuance of paper money as in 1948 under the Kuomintang regime, resulting in a sharp devaluation of paper money and the collapse of the entire financial market. Conversely, if after adopting such a policy, the economy improves and more money is issued, which will cause the money to grow too fast, then the monetary authority of the country should adopt a tight monetary policy which will reduce the money supply to avoid inflation, at which point the country will increase the possibility of raising interest rates. If a countrys interest rates are too low, then it is possible to cause money to flow out of a country with low interest rates to a country with high interest rates, we can get the interest rate differential in the international arena: the throwback arbitrage is based on this principle so that the movement of the dollar, the most affected by interest rates after the continuous reduction of interest rates in the United States, the level of interest rates in the United States is already the lowest level, how to see the continuous depreciation of the dollar against other major currencies Countries often publish some economic data 1) PPI: This is the Producer Price Index which indicates the price of production materials and can be used to measure the price changes of different commodities at different stages of production countries are collecting quotations of various commodities from major producers through their statistical offices and calculating the percentile pattern through their own calculation methods in order to compare for example: the data published by the U.S. now takes For example, the data published in the United States are based on the index of 1967 as 100, which is published by the U.S. Department of Labor, once a month. If the index is higher than expected, it means that there is a possibility of inflation. This index reflects the changes in the prices consumers pay for goods and services. This index is also an indicator often referred to by the U.S. Federal Reserve Board, and is used by Greenspan, Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve Board, to measure the extent of domestic inflation in the U.S. and whether to raise or lower interest rates to control the U.S. economy. When this index rises, it shows that the inflation rate in this region has risen, which means that the purchasing power of the currency has decreased Theoretically, it is not good for the currency and may cause a devaluation of this currency Currently, the European Central Bank puts inflation control in the first place Inflation, however, is good for this currency, if inflation is under control and interest rates fall back at the same time, the currencys (3) RPI is the Retail Price Index. In the United States, this data is surveyed by the U.S. Department of Commerce in a monthly national business survey of a sample of retail goods paid for in cash or by credit card, including furniture, electrical appliances, goods sold in supermarkets and drugs, etc., excluding the consumption of services. (4) UE is the unemployment rate, which is calculated by the countrys Ministry of Labor and published once a month. The government of each country uses a sample survey of the countrys households to determine the employment situation of the entire working population in the country during the month. If there is a willingness to work, but not employed this figure, is the unemployment rate this indicator is a very important economic indicators to the eurozone for example: when the euro started, the unemployment rate in the EU countries in more than 10%, higher than the United States, and led to the euro all the way down in early November, Japans unemployment rate fell from 5.5% to 5.4%, so the yen broke through the 121 mark until 119 water level.5 (5) Foreign trade balance figures: This is a measure of commodity trade between countries, which constitutes an important part of economic activity If a countrys total imports are greater than exports, this is a trade deficit, and vice versa, is a surplus If a countrys trade is often in deficit, the probability of devaluation of this countrys currency will be very high because of currency devaluation, it will make the competitiveness of commodity exports rise, and vice versa, it is bullish on the currency 6) Composite Leading Indicator: This is an indicator used to forecast economic activity. In the United States, for example, the U.S. Department of Commerce collects information, including stock prices, new orders for consumer goods, average weekly unemployment benefit construction, consumer expectations, changes in manufacturers outstanding orders, money supply, sales, production and sales of raw materials, plant and equipment, and the average workweek. If the leading indicator is rising, the countrys economy is growing, which is good for the appreciation of the countrys currency. If the indicator is falling, the countrys economy is showing signs of recession, which is bad for the countrys currency.